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How to Overcome Declining Purchasing Power with Real Estate

December 6, 2023/in Credit, Credit Crisis, Experts, Investing Tips, News /by dulce

By Rick Tobin

Homeowners are 40 times wealthier than tenants. Real estate is an exceptional hedge against inflation because home values tend to rise at least as high as the published inflation rates.

If you’re fortunate to own real estate over years or decades, it’s very likely to be the main reason for the bulk of your family’s overall net worth. Conversely, tenants will be losing money over time as their rents continue to rise right alongside skyrocketing inflation rates.

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Americans in 2023 need to earn more than $11,400 to be able to enjoy the same standard of living as they did in 2021 thanks to the rapidly declining value of our dollar, according to CBS News.

If your earnings rose by 34% from January 2020 to October 2023, the purchasing power of your labor kept pace with higher costs. All of us who aren’t earning 34% more since January 2020 have lost ground. It now takes more hours of work to buy groceries and everything else. To offset declining purchase power, real estate ownership may be your best option.

The purchasing power of $100,000 in income in January 2020 is only $66,000 in purchasing power today (34% reduction). To keep pace with the rapidly falling purchasing power of the dollar, $100,000 in income in January 2020 would need to rise to $134,000 in income today or your investments would need to appreciate at the same rate to offset your dollar losses.

Rising Prices for Goods, Services, and Assets

Between 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2023, let’s review some of the “official” government published data for consumer goods, services, and assets from sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Hospital services: +99.8%
College tuition: +64.4%
Child care: +62.1%
Medical care: +57.2%
Food and drink: +52.8%
Housing: 48.3%

Again, these are the published numbers that are likely underreported and much lower than the true inflated price changes. To me, it seems like all prices are significantly higher here in the 4th quarter of 2023 as compared to the 1st quarter this year. If so, the actual price gains may be significantly higher as we head into 2024.

All-Time Record High California Home Prices

In spite of mortgage rates more than tripling over the past year or so, housing prices statewide in California have never been higher for owners, new buyers, and tenants.

Shocking Los Angeles Home Price Swings

The median home sales price in Los Angeles County hit a record high of $914,640 in September 2023.By comparison, the median Los Angeles County home price was $318,075 (12/08).

Near the peak of the previous housing bubble and near the official start of the Credit Crisis or Great Financial Recession in late 2008, the median home sale price was almost $600,000 lower in Los Angeles County than median-priced homes in the same region. How is this not shocking?

Today, Los Angeles is ranked as the #2 most expensive U.S. city and the #6 most expensive worldwide city for residents to live in, according to KTLA News.

Many California homeowners have never been wealthier due to rapidly increasing home equity gains while many tenants have never been poorer due to their all-time record high rental payments, sadly.

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Expensive Coastal Regions and Inland Moves

Because some of the most expensive real estate prices in the world are located in California coastal counties like San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Francisco (both a city and county name), more residents are moving inland to places like Riverside or San Bernardino counties in Southern California or out of state to Arizona, Nevada, or Texas.

Buyer demand still exceeds the available home supply while pushing home prices higher, especially in the Riverside County region, which is much more affordable than the near $840,000 statewide home price average for California.

Riverside County Home Spotlight Region

The median sale price of a single-family home in Riverside County was a new all-time record high of $620,960 in October 2023, up from $600,000 in September, with a rise from $599,990 in October 2022, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Lake Elsinore: $575,000 ($175,000 below the Temecula average)
Canyon Lake: $662,000
Menifee: $547,500
Murrieta: $657,500
Temecula: $750,000
Corona: $759,000

Adding Value to Real Estate

Owners or interested buyers who are thinking about purchasing a new one-to-four unit property to boost their wealth and/or monthly income with rental units have several options these days which may include:

First-time owner-occupied homes
A move-up from a smaller to a larger home
A short-term or long-term rental
Adding tiny homes or ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit) to a residential property site to increase monthly cash flow.
Remodeling an existing home with a new kitchen, bathroom, or bedroom.
Building a brand new home, duplex, triplex, or fourplex from the ground up.

One-Time Close Construction Loans

I’ve worked on numerous individual home construction loans and large residential development tracts over the past few decades. Yet, I’ve never seen a better, easier, and more affordable home construction loan option for owners who are interested in building a brand new “dream home” for their family.

Generally, a person may need two or three separate loans to build a new home that may include a land purchase loan (40% to 50% LTV ranges are more the norm), construction loan, and a final 30-year takeout or permanent loan to pay off the construction loan.

With a One-Time Close Construction Loan, the borrower applicant qualifies for one loan to buy the land, build the home, and keep the same loan for up to 30 years all within one loan closing option. This way, there’s one credit report pull, one loan underwriting and approval process, one down payment unless it’s a VA loan (up to 100% financing) or a very low down payment requirement for FHA-insured and conventional loans (up to 95% to 96.5% LTV).

Let’s review below some of the loan product highlights offered by one of my main lending partners:

Conventional Loans

* Available on 15-and 30-year fixed conventional, high balance and 7- and 10-year ARM options
* Eligible on primary, second or vacation home, and investment property purchases and rate/term refinances
* Loan amounts up to the conforming loan limits
* 700+ FICO, up to 95% LTV
* 11-month maximum build period with 1-month modification period
* Interest-only monthly payments during the build period

VA Loans

* Available on 30-year fixed loans
* Loans up to $4M
* Eligible on primary home purchases and cash-out refinances
* 580+ FICO, up to 100% LTV
* 11-month maximum build period with 1-month modification period (build period is deducted from the loan term)
* No monthly payments during the build period

Rule of 72 and Power of Leverage

Real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation over the past 100 years. In some economic boom years, home values may double in value every 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years. With minimal down payments, the true annual cash-on-cash returns are much higher than most people realize.

The Rule of 72 is an investment formula used to estimate how long it may take for an asset to double in value using a projected annual rate of return. If homes in your region have increased 7% per year over the past several years and home appreciation continues at the same pace in the future, then it may take 10+ years for your new home to double in value using the Rule of 72 (72/7 or 7% = 10+ years).

Most first-time home buyers use high mortgage leverage within a 0% to 6% down payment range (6% down is average).
Let’s use 20% down payment for an estimated cash-on-cash return for an owner-occupied or investment property buyer. At a 7% annual appreciation rate average, the cash-on-cash return is actually 5 times 7% (20% down – 1/5th; 80% bank – 4/5th) for a total 35% annual cash-on-cash return.

Time and inflation can be two great allies to eliminate the mortgage debt as your home rises in value thanks to the power of leverage and inflation.

Is the housing market positive, negative, or neutral? It depends on the home region, the regional home listing inventory supply, and the price range is perhaps the safest answer to give.

Why doesn’t it feel like a slow home sales market to first-time buyers? Let’s take a closer look at the national home sales numbers for October 2023 as provided by the National Association of Realtors:

66% of homes for sale were sold in less than a month.
62% of surveyed real estate professionals said that their first-time home buyers had to put in four or more offers before closing on a home.
The median home sales price for an existing home was $391,800, up 3.4% compared to a year ago.

Invest in Your Future Today

The average homeowner at retirement age has 83% of their net worth tied up in their primary home. 60%+ of Americans surveyed say that they live paycheck to paycheck, so saving is challenging. Middle-income parents may spend an average of $310,605 by the time a child born in 2015 turns 17 years old in 2032, per Brookings Institute. What about college?

The average Social Security benefit paid out in 2022 was $1,657/mo. ($19,884/yr.). Median savings rate (excluding retirement funds) by age: $3,240 (under 35); $4,710 (35-44); $5,620 (45-54); and $6,400 (55-64), per a Federal Reserve survey. The median retirement savings for all families is $87,000, according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances.

There’s good debt (mortgages) and bad debt (credit cards at 28% to 33% rates, etc.). Mortgages help create long-term wealth, especially after they are paid off in full. To shorten the time to pay off a mortgage, you might pay biweekly and add some principal to reduce 10 to 15+ years in payments while the home asset potentially doubles or triples in value.

Our dollar’s purchasing power is on track to continue falling in value. If so, the prices paid for consumer goods, services, and assets like real estate may keep rising as well. As a result, equity gains for real estate ownership may increase while giving you more options to pay off debt and build a brighter future.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details.

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Are You Ready To Live Overseas? Before You Move, Read This.

August 29, 2019/in Investing Tips, News /by dulce

-Special Submission by Matt Malouf-

The surge of Americans living full-time and seasonally abroad continues. Currently, The Association of Americans Resident Overseas (AAR) estimates that 8.7 million American reside oversees. Our editors have seen many real estate investors who read our publications make that transition.

Their reasons are varied, but have included: to retire early from a corporate job, to explore other cultures, as a way to stretch their monthly cash flow, to upgrade their standard of living, and of course, for the ever-so-popular amore.

If you’ve been considering moving to Coast Rica to escape that boring 9-to-5 or have always wanted to own a bed-and-breakfast in the Island of Santorini, read on to see if this option suits your lifestyle.

Starting a new life in a new country can be nerve-wracking. You have to understand the new culture and it is difficult when you get labeled as a “foreigner” or an “expat” on first sight. Here are a few tips that can help you adapt to a new life in a foreign county.

Trying New Things

As they say, you should always be willing to try new things, but, of course, you need to draw a line somewhere.

However, there are a lot of people out there who are afraid to eat new things, let alone experience extreme sports and adventure. This is the fear of the unknown and many research studies suggest we fear uncertainly more than a known bad outcome. Some of the questions that come to mind when people want to try new things are what if that country is dangerous, what if I drown and what if I don’t like the new dish.

It is natural for some level of fear to always be present when trying out new things; however, our overactive imagination makes it seem so much worse. Once a person makes up his mind to try new things at every possible turn, he or she will see a reduction in their fears and a thirst for new experiences.

Trying new things also makes us grow. Taking yourself out of your comfort zone and putting yourself where the action is will make us more empowered, open-minded and far from being bored. Afterall, you only live once.

Do As the Romans Do

A lot of people have trouble adapting to new places. Although living in an exotic new land may sound like a romantic notion, many people fail to make the transfer from expat to compatriots when they stick to their old lifestyles.

Most people experience culture shock after they witness a culture so vastly different from theirs. Culture shock slowly sets in and results in depression. This further alienates a person from the locals and makesthem feel lonely and homesick.

So, if you want to live abroad, make sure to open up your mind. Remember, this is not the country from where you came from and your old notions and concepts will no longer serve you. Since you will encounter different rules, observe how other people are acting in that situation so that you can understand what is expected of you.

One of the biggest concern of foreigners is that they are uncomfortable being a “visible minority.” A white person will stand out like a beacon in Nigeria or Japan and is bound to generate some odd looks. But if you adapt to the locals’ customs and follow their lead, you will see that your differences will look less marked.

Also, ask questions. If you feel lost, there is no shame in asking for help. You can always ask for explanation if you feel you have missed something. Also pay attention to not just the words but nonverbal communication to get a better idea of what is going on.

Once you accept change and adapt to your life in a new environment, you will find it has opened venues of opportunities for you and will lead to more thrilling and interesting stuff.

Don’t Wait For Anyone Else

Once you get to your new country, don’t wait for others to give you instructions on how to go about doing your business. Take the initiative and do it yourself. Ask lots if questions. Many Americans will experience a 180 degrees difference when they come to live in India or Egypt. The best way to cope with it is to go out and participate in what the locals are doing. You can learn a lot from actually experiencing things compared to what you are just told or what you read.

Speak the Language

Many English speakers are under the misapprehension that they can get by throwing random words of English and locals will understand them. Hence, they suffer quite a shock when they realize not many people in Asian or African countries speak English.

It is recommended that people who want to live in a new country must at least learn some key phrases in a foreign language so that they can order food or drink or find their way to a hotel. However, knowing the language extensively will enable you to have proper conversations with the locals, which can help you quickly learn about their customs and traditions. It will show how interested you are in knowing about your new country.

Pursue New Activities and Hobbies

In my understanding, if you are learning to live in a new country, you should also try and pursue some new hobbies. Try to explore where you are and what your place is in the greater scheme of things. This will help you look at the world from a different perspective.

One of the best things you can do is to look for a group that matches your interests. Even if you are from the other side of the world, there are always commonalities. Are you interested in cooking and is there a group offering local, exotic cuisine classes? Is there a local who likes to travel the world like you do and have many exciting stories to share? Join them.

If you are feeling isolated, look for a community of expats or start your own group. They will be native English speakers and will understand the norms of where you came from and can offer you words of advice.

Respect Different Cultures

Remember that unfortunate photo of Selene Gomez baring her leg in a mosque while she was on a visit to the United Arab Emirates? Don’t make that mistake. Be responsible and respect other people’s culture and religion.

The first thing you need to do is to accept the fact that there are many different cultures in the world other than just our own. Even if you do not agree with a custom or tradition, remember that it could encompass the country’s value and you need to honor your role as a visitor. An act that may seem simple or trivial to you may reflect something far more significant for a person from that culture. Being open-minded can fill your life with positivity and also encourage friendships with people from different race, culture and backgrounds.

If you follow these few simple rules, pretty soon you will be able to make a new home overseas. So, do you have what it takes?