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Distressed Properties & Contradictory Data

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By Rick Tobin

The published economic numbers that we see daily or weekly don’t necessarily reflect the reality of what’s going on with the job market, financial markets, and housing sector, especially. Reality can be a bitter pill to swallow, figuratively. Is our economy still booming, starting to soften or flatten, or is it turning negative?

The mainstream media likes to share economic data that’s published by the federal government which seems completely disconnected from reality. While we see articles published weekly about massive layouts from well-known companies like Amazon, Walmart, Disney, PayPal, Zoom, Dell, IBM, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Vimeo, Coinbase, and Goldman Sachs, we also see published unemployment data that’s claimed to be near historical lows. These massive layoffs and “near historical low unemployment” numbers seem to be contradictory to one another as they can’t both be true at the same time.

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What about housing? In early 2023, we are still seeing all-time record highs for median rents and median home prices in most regions of the country. Yet, we’ve also seen mortgage rates increase by two or three times above peak lows as last seen in late 2021 and the 1st quarter of 2022.

Generally, the booming or busting housing markets are tied directly to mortgage rate trends and whether or not loan underwriting is easing or tightening. How can property values still be peaking while we’ve also possibly seen the fastest increase with short-term and long-term rates in US history at the exact same time? This is another fine example of a contradictory marketplace with two extreme opposites at the same time.

Bubble Burst and Suppressed Housing Supply

For many of us, the absolute worst housing market bubble burst that we experienced firsthand was back in 2008. In California and many other states, the housing market started to peak in late 2006 or 2007. The catalyst for this peaking housing market bubble burst was directly related to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hike campaign over the period of 24 months between June 2004 and June 2006. The Fed raised rates a total of 4.25% from 1% to 5.25% with 17 separate rate hikes.

Because so many borrowers were in adjustable rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit, the mortgage payments began to double or triple for property owners after these 17 rate hikes. As a result, the number of distressed or foreclosure properties reached several million with a high percentage located in California and other Sun Belt states like Nevada, Arizona, and Florida.

Let’s take a look at the worst bubble burst year ever in US history to better understand how bad the price collapse was in 2008:

● Home prices fell in 35 states.
● California had the biggest price collapse at -29.6%.
● Nevada had the 2nd biggest price drop at -22.8%.
● Arizona fell -19%, Florida dropped -18.2%, and Rhode Island fell -13.7%.

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Even worse, California home prices fell a total of -42% off their previous bubble peak. Nevada’s median price dropped -39% from their peak. Both Arizona and Florida fell -33% from their respective previous market peaks.

Because the number of distressed properties increased so dramatically, a very high number of lenders did not start the foreclosure process even if the borrowers were several years behind on their mortgage payments. If a lender or mortgage loan servicer did initiate the foreclosure and take it all the way to the final auction sale, millions of these properties were not placed up for sale as they became a massive shadow inventory of unoccupied homes.

Many lenders did not want to acknowledge or share how bad their non-performing loan portfolio was at the time with their stockholders, equity partners, or derivatives investors. If the lenders did foreclosure on every delinquent mortgage in their portfolio, it might financially crush the same lender. As a result, it wasn’t unheard of to read about homeowners in Beverly Hills mansions with $5 million loans who hadn’t made one mortgage payment in three years or longer.

The same thing is happening today here in 2023. Lenders aren’t starting the foreclosure process as often as they’re legally entitled to due to borrowers not making payments for months or years. It’s also been claimed by many people that the current number of millions of empty shadow inventory homes that are not currently listed for sale may exceed the total number of all homeless people nationwide. Whether this claim is accurate or not as it would be incredibly challenging to prove, our current listing home supply nationwide is still near historical lows.

For those people who claim that the housing market is busting, home prices nationwide increased by +10.1% year-over-year through October 2022 in spite of mortgage rates doubling or tripling in less than a year, according to CoreLogic. This home price “slowdown” is still almost two or three times higher than historical annual price gains.

Record High Consumer Debt & Rents

Total credit card debt reached a new record high of $930.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data released by TransUnion. At the same time, credit card rates and fees reached all-time record highs with average annual rates exceeded 20% for many consumers.

Consumer credit spending fell by a whopping 65% from November ($33.1 billion) to December 2022 ($11.56 billion) in spite of it being the traditionally peak holiday spending month. This is a potential major warning sign that a high percentage of consumers are tapped out and/or their credit card lenders are starting to drastically reduce the borrowers’ ceiling limit.

Several published economic surveys discovered that most of the polled consumers did not have $500 as cash available to cover any unexpected financial emergencies like with medical bills, rising utilities, or skyrocketing grocery costs. One of the most important pieces of information about the health of the economy is directly related to the typical consumers’ cash reserves. When access to cash is near historical lows and rents and mortgage payments are at historical highs, then something has to give at some point.

How can people qualify and afford these astronomical rents for just a 1-bedroom apartment that are listed below? Please keep in mind that many landlords want to see their tenant applicants have gross monthly income that is at least three times the proposed rent. For places like New York City, this would be equal to $11,370 in gross income to qualify for a typical one bedroom apartment that’s leasing for a median of $3,790 per month.

Top 5 Most Expensive Rent Cities (1-Bedroom Apartment)

1. New York, NY: $3,790
2. Boston, MA: $3,000
3. San Francisco, CA: $3,000
4. Miami, FL: $2,660
5. San Jose, CA: $2,540
Source: Boardroom

In many regions, the monthly rents are higher than the median mortgage payments. This trend is unlikely to continue onward as mortgage rates rise and rents start to flatten or fall.

Rising Rates and Distressed Properties

In some metropolitan regions like Los Angeles, they’ve had two and three year long moratoriums that protect tenants from paying their rents due to the Covid issue. Most landlords are small “Mom and Pop” type landlords who may be fortunate to own just one or two rentals. If their tenants haven’t paid rent in two or three years, then the property owner may default on their own mortgage and lose it to foreclosure, sadly.

Lenders and loan service companies will likely start to accelerate their foreclosure filings later this year. If so, this can be traumatizing for the distressed homeowners who may soon lose all of their equity and their roof over their head. At the same time, it can be an investment opportunity for others who keep their eyes open for bargain deals.

As of February 10, 2023, the Fed Funds Rate is at 4.58%. Some financial analysts think that the Fed may take their core rate up to 6% or higher later this year and keep it there for a relatively long period of time. If so, how will existing homeowners and buyer prospects be able to afford higher payments?

Many savvy real estate investors and licensees are now starting to describe early 2023 as a bit reminiscent of 2008. Yet, many others will say that the “the relatively low available supply home listing inventory” will protect us from any sort of a double-digit price collapse. While this may be very true and the Fed may be forced to suddenly start cutting rates in the near future if the economy really weakens, what happens if the shadow inventory is slowly released to the general public and the tenant and foreclosure moratoriums are lifted?

With any perceived positive, neutral, or negative situation, it’s usually very wise to focus on potential solutions for as many possible housing trends that may or may not happen in the near future. Few of us like to actually address possible negative situations as we remain stuck in the state of denial and cognitive dissonance where two contradictory situations must both be right at the exact same time even though they can’t both be true. What we avoid in life controls us, so we must face our fears head on and stay focused on the opportunities or solutions.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

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Four Foreclosure Investor Precautions

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By Tod Snodgrass

The number of NOD pre-foreclosures notices are on the rise. Fortune magazine reports they are up triple digits in 2022 compared to 2021. There are several factors causing the uptick: COVID mortgage forbearance overhang, the current recession, rapidly rising interest rates this year, etc. The increase in the number of homeowners and landlords in trouble is causing a lot of (both note and property) investors to start taking a hard look at how they can profit from these changes in the market. Precautions include:

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1. Depreciating prices. For those who came into the investor market after the last downturn, you may not be aware that residential property prices in many markets dropped by 40%, from peak (2008) to trough (2012). Some areas/types of real estate dropped by even more. The cautionary tale is to be sure to build in enough equity in foreclosure properties you seek to acquire. In an up market, where prices are appreciating double digits every year, how much equity you initially acquire is usually not the first box you check as an investor. However, as the old saying goes: That was then, and this is now. Assuming the recession worsens, you need to build in more of an “equity buffer” into each deal to protect yourself from making no profit (or actually losing money) when you go to sell the property or note.

2. Judicial vs. non-judicial states. The number of virtual wholesale note and property deals are increasing nationwide; wholesalers need to be knowledge about what laws apply in the state in which the investment is being made. About half the states in the nation are what is referred to as non-judicial. That means they typically employ what are known as trust deeds and trust deed notes. The foreclosure is undertaken without using lawyers and judges. Judicial states usually require you to go through the court system to adjudicate your claim. Non-judicial states usually cost less and take less time to foreclose.

See https://retipster.com/judicial-non-judicial-foreclosure-states-list-map/ for a map, as well as details on the specifics for each state.

3. Beware of Land Contracts (LCs). An LC is an agreement in which the owner/seller of a property agrees to act as the bank and personally finance the sale for the buyer instead of going through a 3rd party, such as a bank or credit union. The buyer makes monthly payments to the owner, but does NOT receive actual title to the property until the last payment is made; and the last one is often a “balloon” payment, i.e. for a very large amount (that the buyer perhaps cannot afford to make).

As an investor (of a property or a note secured by a property) who is about to step into this breach, you must give careful consideration to the LC contract that the owner has/had with the LC buyer. What you want to avoid is getting subsequently sued by the buyer after you bought out the interest of the seller.

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For example, does the seller own the property outright, or is he still making payments to a lending institution? If the owner himself did not make regular payments for any reason, the property can be foreclosed upon, leaving the buyer with a worthless contract and no home. Land contracts also leave the new owner (you) tied to the property. If the buyer stops making their payments, you become responsible for the land—which means you could lose the property altogether if the buyer fails to insure it properly or pay their property taxes. 

All of these tricky issues must be taken into account when you are considering an acquisition that includes a land contract. You need to have a very clear understanding of everyone’s rights and responsibilities beforehand. To play it safe, retain legal counsel to look everything over first.

4. Watch out for Super Liens in 20 states. There are approximately 370,000 homeowner associations (HOAs) in the United States. Collectively, this represents more than 40 million households (or about 53% of the owner-occupied households in America). Statistically, about 26% of all Americans live in HOA communities. Typical HOA/association dues & fees run from $200-$300 per month—many charge more, some charge a LOT more.

In most states, when a lender forecloses on a property in a HOA, and the property owner has also defaulted on their association fees, odds are the condo association won’t get paid for those debts. That is because a successful foreclosure action by the holder of the first position mortgage typically wipes out all junior notes and many liens. However, in about 20 states (see the list below), “super lien” laws have been passed that protect the association from being wiped out completely.

A foreclosure by a bank or credit union can take many months. During that time the HOA is not receiving the monthly payments due to them. When the bank finally forecloses and sells the property, and surplus funds are left over, the HOA (in a Super Lien state) can typically petition the court to channel that money to the association, assuming the association has properly recorded a lien.

So, if you are a note or property investor, be sure to check carefully if the state in which you are investing (and where you could potentially foreclose on a property) is a super lien state. If so, you need to take that information into account, and build those costs into your bid price for the note or property.

To reiterate, about 20 states allow for some form of super lien. Each of the states has differing laws when it comes to how an HOA lien becomes a super lien. You can learn more about super lien states and their individual laws regarding super liens by looking up your state statutes which can usually be found online. The following states allow for super liens, or some version of priority liens for community associations: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia.

What We Do: Provide 100% Joint Venture Funding, nationwide, to real estate note and property wholesalers. Contact info: Tod Snodgrass, [email protected], 310-408-7015

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The Reality of SB-1079 Foreclosures

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By Edward Brown

Attempting to curtail foreclosed houses being turned into rentals, California passed SB-1079 in 2021. This law effectively, for 45 days, suspended any activity after the foreclosure. Prior to this law, houses that were foreclosed on could be purchased at the foreclosure sale by investors and immediately turned into rental property. When this happened, houses were taken off the inventory for home ownership.

California was desiring to promote homeownership, and reduced inventory pushed prices higher as well as increased renters vs homeowners. The theory behind SB-1079 was that it would discourage investors from bidding at the foreclosure because, for the next 45 days, an “eligible bidder” could match the winning bid. The effect of this would be that the investor would tie up his money for 45 days and not know if he would end up with the property. Thus, investors would most likely not show up and bid at the foreclosure and wait out the 45 days to see if any eligible bidders came forward. If nobody outbid the lender at the foreclosure sale, the investor
could approach the lender to purchase the property. With SB-1079 in place, there is no incentive for an investor to outbid at the auction.

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One of the main problems with this law is that the party being foreclosed on has almost no chance of any over-bidding at the foreclosure. Prior to SB-1079, it was possible for the borrower who was being foreclosed on to potentially recoup some equity in the property if the house was bid up. For example, if the 1st mortgage was owed $100,000 and was the foreclosing party, and the house was worth $300,000, the lender would most likely credit bid their entire $100,000 loan. If another party bid $140,000, the lender would get paid their $100,000 and the owner of the house who was getting foreclosed on would walk away with $40,000. SB-1079 effectively shuts the door on that scenario, as the chances of someone outbidding the lender at the foreclosure are slim due to the uncertainty of the bidder acquiring the property at the sale. For the following 45 days, an “eligible bidder” has the opportunity to bid the same $100,000 as the lender and end up with the property. Although there are eight definitions of an eligible bidder, the primary ones include an occupant of the property as his primary residence [not the borrower or a family member of the borrower, however], effectively, a rental, a prospective owner-occupant, and a California nonprofit whose primary activity is the development of affordable housing. If the house is owner occupied, that eliminates the potential tenant purchase option.

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The main problem is that the homeowner will almost certainly lose 100% of any potential equity due to nobody outbidding at the foreclosure auction. At this writing, there are not many non-profits who are set up for development of affordable housing; thus, the only realistic way for the lender to be taken out after 45 days [after the foreclosure] will be those houses that were rented out to tenants or those who desire to own and occupy the house as their primary residence. This last potential is slim, as most buyers want to make offers on houses they can inspect and not wait 45 days to find out whether or not they will be allowed to buy the house.

Due to these new foreclosure laws in California, lenders will have to factor into their underwriting the potential added costs of holding a [potential] foreclosed property at the time they make their loan to the borrower, as the lender is precluded from selling or renting out the property for 45 days after the foreclosure. The lender may have additional costs during this period, such as securing the property against vandalism, vagrants, weed abatement, and the like.

It is still too early to tell if the statistics show if tenants come up with the needed funding options in order to secure the house for their own benefit, as the program is still in its infancy. Only time will tell if this experiment works out for potential would-be homeowners or if it was just a sure-fire way to make sure foreclosed homeowners recoup nothing.

ABOUT EDWARD BROWN

Edward Brown currently hosts two radio shows, The Best of Investing and Sports Econ 101. He is also in the Investor Relations department for Pacific Private Money, a private real estate lending company.

Additionally, Edward has published many articles in various financial magazines as well as been an expert on CNN, in addition to appearing as an expert witness and consultant in cases involving investments and analysis of financial statements and tax returns.

Edward Brown, Host
The Best of Investing on KTRB 860AM
The Answer on Saturdays at 8pm
and Sports Econ 101 on Saturdays
at 1pm on SiriusXM channel 217
21 Pepper Way
San Rafael, CA 94901
[email protected]

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The Deed-in-Lieu-of-Foreclosure

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Image from Pixabay

By Bruce Kellogg

The Wrong Way

At a recent meet-up, I met a man who had recovered a property from a defaulting borrower on a note they had between them. Looking to save costs, the note-holder accepted a deed and promptly recorded it. Later, when he went to refinance, he discovered that several liens and judgments had attached to the title of the property. In total, they wiped out his equity! Sad tale, but true, and this wrong way of doing a deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure happens a lot. So, what is the right way that protects both the defaulting borrower and the recovering note-holder?

Image from Pixabay

No. 1 Open an escrow, and order a title report. Specify that involuntary liens (liens, judgments, etc.) are to be searched as well as voluntary liens (mortgages, deeds-of-trust). Expect to buy title insurance and pay escrow costs.

No. 2 If you received an insurance policy from the borrower, and were named as “mortgagee”, or “additional insured”, call the company and find out if the policy is still in effect. If it is not, order a policy of your own. You need protection.

No. 3 Check the property taxes with the County Tax Collector. If they are delinquent, pay them current. Get a receipt to give to escrow because some counties are slow to update their records.

No. 4 Find out the status of any senior loans. Call first, but if the lender refuses due to privacy reasons, have escrow or your attorney make the request. Pay the senior loans current, preferably through escrow. If paying them yourself, be sure to get a receipt for escrow.

No. 5 See the property. If it is within driving distance, visit it personally. If not, hire a service like www.wegolook.com to go take pictures.

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Caution: If the property is rented, it is advisable not to step on the property or engage anyone there in conversation.

No. 6 If the property is a rental, try to get the defaulting borrower to turn over the security deposits and any advance rents. You might not get this.

No. 7 When the title report comes back, you need to check for any liens and judgments. If these are present, then you need to foreclose to shed them from your title.(This is what the unfortunate lender above failed to do.) You have no choice.

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No. 8 If there are no involuntary liens, or small ones (e.g., garbage liens) that you are willing to pay in escrow, then have a Deed-in-Lieu-of-Foreclosure drawn up for the defaulting borrowers to sign. These deeds are special because they have a recitation of several paragraphs on them called an “Estoppel Affidavit”. The borrowers affirm that they are deeding freely, without coercion or duress, and are not being compensated beyond forgiveness of their debt.

No. 9 If the borrowers go through this process, and escrow closes, then you need to return their original note marked “PAID” to them. In addition, escrow needs you to sign a Full Reconveyance of the mortgage or deed-of-trust in order to insure your clear title.

And that’s the right way!

Bruce Kellogg

Bruce Kellogg has been a Realtor® and investor for 40 years. He has transacted about 800 properties in 12 California counties. These include 1-4 units, 5+ apartments, offices, mixed-use buildings, land, lots, mobile homes, cabins, and churches.

Mr. Kellogg is a contributor and copy editor for two national real estate wealth-building magazines: Realty411, and REI Wealth Magazine. He is a recipient of an Albert Nelson Marquis Lifetime Achievement Award, listed in Who’s Who in America– 2019.

He is available for consulting with syndication, turnkey, joint-venture, and other property purchasers and note investors nationally, and other consulting assignments. Reach him at [email protected], or (408) 489-0131.

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Higher Chicago Foreclosure Activity Not A Problem

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Image from Pixabay

By Gary Lucido

I’m going to stay out on this limb that I crawled out on but apparently I’m not alone out there. According to ATTOM Data Solutions February Foreclosure Market Report the nation saw a 129% increase in foreclosure activity from a year ago. However, that percentage is kinda meaningless given that foreclosures were basically shut down last year. The graph below puts this dynamic in perspective for Chicago where there was a 328% increase over last year and a 29% increase over January. As you can see activity is probably no higher than it would have been had the pandemic never happened. As Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac which is owned by ATTOM, said:

This isn’t an indication of economic turmoil, or of weakness in the housing market; it’s simply the gradual return to normal levels of foreclosure activity after two years of artificially low numbers due to government and industry efforts to protect financially-impacted homeowners from defaulting.

In this foreclosure report both the Chicago metro area and Illinois got honorable mention for being among the top 5 metro areas and states respectively with high foreclosure rates. Of course, that’s because the rest of the country’s housing markets are so damn strong right now.

After a dramatic plunge following the pandemic foreclosure moratorium Chicago foreclosure activity has just now begun to resurge now that the moratorium has ended.[/caption] One of the reasons for our optimism is that delinquencies have dropped down to pre-pandemic lows as shown in this graph from Black Knight’s January Mortgage Monitor Report. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise given the strength of the job and housing market.

The nation’s mortgage delinquency rate continues to improve and seems to have recovered from the pandemic.

Chicago Shadow Inventory

The number of homes that are in the foreclosure process is holding pretty steady with only a 71 unit increase over last month. This pipeline of homes that might find themselves on the market sometime soon is ever so slowly trending up but it remains extremely low by historical standards.

The number of homes in foreclosure in Chicago declined with the moratorium during the pandemic and doesn’t seem to be rising since.

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.